Thursday, April 2, 2015

Butcher3 vs. Grim2 - Ruin's First Outing

Like many other Khador players, I've been itching to proxy Ruin since it's rules were spoiled in NQ #59. It was that drive that pulled me back to Khador after dabbling in Convergence for a bit (terrible timing to try and move away from the reds...) so of course the first game I got was going to use a list with Ruin in it.

Join me after the break as I take Ruin out for it's first proxy game. And, of course, more Butcher3.

Lists:
My List:
Kommander Zoktavir, The Butcher Unleashed (*4pts)
   * Juggernaut (7pts)
   * Juggernaut (7pts)
   * Ruin (10pts)
Iron Fang Pikemen (Leader and 9 Grunts) (8pts)
   * Black Dragon Officer & Standard (2pts)
Widowmakers (Leader and 3 Grunts) (4pts)
Eiryss, Angel of Retribution (3pts)
Iron Fang Kovnik (2pts)
Koldun Lord (2pts)
Ragman (2pts)
Raluk Moorclaw (2pts)
   * Vanguard (5pts)

This is a copy of the list that Jamie Perkin's has been running for awhile now, with the quick-and-easy substitution of swapping out the Spriggan currently in his list for Ruin. I've played a 3-warjack build with Butcher3 before (though my list was way different than either Jamie or Trent's), so I'm a little familiar with the idea. This version is much more aggressive than my previous lists were, and of course Ruin has a lot more potential than any other "point" warjack (give or take Beast-09).

My Friend's List:
Hunters Grim (*4pts)
   * Troll Impaler (5pts)
   * Dire Troll Bomber (10pts)
   * Trollkin Runebearer (2pts)
Northkin Fire Eaters (Leader and 2 Grunts) (4pts)
Trollkin Highwaymen (Leader and 9 Grunts) (8pts)
Trollkin Scouts (Leader and 5 Grunts) (5pts)
Fell Caller Hero (3pts)
Horgle Ironstrike (3pts)
   * Slag Troll (6pts)
   * Slag Troll (6pts)
Stone Scribe Chronicler (2pts)
Troll Whelps (2pts)

This is an iteration of the Grim2 lists my friend has been working on. He's had a fair bit of success with it, and it's definitely a very different list than what's expected of a Trollblood list in the current meta. This list is very fast, with lots of quality shooting and surprising dodginess on the approach. Mortality helps to keep the list effective against a wider variety of targets, and the Slag Trolls under Horgle can do remarkable damage to warjacks from range.

Scenario: 2015 Incursion

Deployment:
Deployment and Round 1
Proxy Notes: Ruin will be represented this game (and probably in all future games) by the Kodiak. It's the only time the poor thing is going to see the table.

The Storm Troll in Horgol's battlegroup is a second Slag Troll.

Grim wins the roll off and opts for first turn.

Round 1:
Grim Turn 1:
Lots of running. Grim gets Mirage out onto the Highwaymen, who also get Tale of Mist from the Chronicler. Horgol gets Hot Shot onto one of the Slag Trolls.

Butcher Turn 1:
Butcher, his battlegroup, Raluk, and his Vanguard all run toward the center of the table. The Widowmakers fall back and shoot at the Scouts, killing one and knocking down two. The Black Dragon Iron Fang Pikemen (BD IFP) get Shield March from the Iron Fang Kovnik (IFK) and Shield Wall advance onto the hill.

Round 2:
Start of Round 2
Grim Turn 2:
Grim upkeeps Mirage (giving the Highwaymen a 2" place) and Horgol upkeeps Hot Shot.

The surviving, standing Scouts Assault into the Widowmakers and the IFK, killing two Widowmakers (who pass their command check) and the IFK. The Fire Eaters Assault charge one model into the BD IFP, hitting one but failing to kill it (though setting it on fire).

The Highwaymen advance and those that are in range put two CRAs into Ruin, doing decent damage. The Impaler puts Snipe on the Bomber, which then advances and throws two boosted damage bombs into Ruin, one of which is Shield Guarded by the Vanguard (9 damage). Ruin ends the turn with 15 or so damage on it, but all systems functional.

Everything else re-positions for the following turn.

Butcher Turn 2:
Butcher keeps all of his Focus.

Ruin leads off the turn by charging into a cluster of two Highwaymen and one Fire Eater (Highwaymen pass their Abomination check). Between initial attacks and souls, it is able to kill all three models and end that activation with one soul remaining on it.

The Koldun Lord advances and sprays two Highwaymen, hitting both, killing one, and knocking the other down. The Juggernauts get out of the way.

Butcher and his arguses (?) charge into the Highwaymen, forcing a Terror check, which they fail. Butcher then Energizers for 1", which allows him to pull in the Bomber with Impending Doom. Between initial attacks from Butcher and his unit, as well as additional attacks purchased, Butcher ends his activation with everything in the area dead, camping 5 Focus. The arguses use Sprint to re-position in front of Butcher.

Raluk and his Vanguard run forward, with the Vanguard moving to within Shield Guard range of Butcher.

On the right flank, Widowmakers shoot down two of the Scouts, which opens up lanes for the BD IFP to charge into the remaining Fire Eaters, the Runebearer (who had moved to contest the flag), and the other Scouts. The BD IFP kill all of the Fire Eaters, the Runebearer, and another of the Scouts.

Eiryss runs into B2B with the flag, controlling it (as the nearby Highwaymen are fleeing). Ragman runs towards the left flag to hopefully control it next turn.

End of turn, Butcher scores 1 CP for controlling the right flag.

CP: Butcher 1 - Grim 0

Round 3:
Start of Round 3
Grim Turn 3:
Grim opts to go all-in this turn in an effort to kill Butcher. Between Grim's feat and Mortality, he's able to swing the math into a better position, and Muggs is able to knock Butcher down with his Snare Gun.

Unfortunately, the dice were not cooperative, and Butcher ends the turn having taken all of one damage, and is corroded from the Slag Troll shots.

Seeing the situation as untenable, my opponent concedes.

Result: Butcher wins!

Post-Game Thoughts:
Thinking back on how the game ended, I worry that I would have possibly made the wrong call if I had to close the game out normally.

The most obvious approach would be to go for assassination. Grim was kind of flapping in the breeze, but Butcher was knocked down, and needed Silence of Death to seal the deal. So he'd get to Grim with 3 Focus, as well as some possible Argus attacks. DEF 16 is a problem, and I don't have a great solution for it other than boosting with Butcher. 3 Focus is just enough for a boosted charge attack, then a purchased attack with a boosted to-hit roll.

Mathematically, it's probably an assassination run with good odds - 7's to hit on boosted attack rolls, dice + 1 on 4d6 (charge attack) and 3d6 (follow up) damage rolls, assuming both hit - and it gets better if I can shenanigan up a way to get Ruin in there as well (possible, considering there wasn't much in front of Grim from that angle). My feeble attempt at mathing it out puts the odds at around 80% to succeed. Great odds.

However, if that run fails, Butcher is at zero camp, just hanging out right at the core of Grim's army. Granted, there isn't much left (and I would have tried to kill Horgol that turn as well), but it'd still be a bad place to be, especially when I had the game virtually locked in. An 80% chance of success is still a 20% chance of failure.

I think the better, though less exciting plan, would be to just turtle up and ride out a scenario win. I scored 1 CP the turn prior, and it wouldn't be too difficult to score 3 CP this turn. I can do all that while probably building a nice little bunker for Butcher (who will be on full camp), making it all but impossible for him to die. With Grim's army dwindling, I should be able to pretty easily score on either far flag the following turn to close out the game (Ragman was in a great position to essentially own the left flag).

Also, wrapping all that up in sort of a mid-drafting edit: I was talking about the game with my friend the day afterwards and he realized that he totally forgot to Reform with Grim and his unit. That would probably have taken the assassination completely off the table, making the scenario grind my only option. One of those incidents of doing the right thing, which in turn leads your opponent to do the right thing themselves.

Things That Went Well:
I have uneven results whenever Butcher ends up in a "safe as I can make it, but I have to risk getting killed" situations, especially against Hordes armies (where the boosts flow more freely). I was very nervous putting Butcher up there - Mark Target and Mortality are crucial math fixers, and Butcher was going to be taking a lot of boosted shots - but I also didn't want to let the Bomber survive. On average, that spread of attacks should have done around 11 damage to him (assuming the Vanguard tanks one of the boosted 13's); not likely to kill, even with some spikes, but also not impossible, and he won't be happy for later.

Thankfully, it went even better than expected, and left Butcher in a really good position to run the table from there on out.

I also got kind of lucky that nothing broke on Ruin before I could send him in. It absolutely would have without the Vanguard, barring a really lucky column roll.

The BD IFP also cleaned up the right flank much more effectively than I expected. I've had a run of games with them recently where they've ended up just kind of taking hits on the chin, so I'd forgotten how much damage they can do when they finally get to charge in. They're not fancy, but IFP are a very good 5/8 unit.

I am pleased that I was able to capitalize on the right flag being open. I'd love to say that I planned to have Eiryss2 within running range of it, but it was total happy coincidence. I should, uh, definitely try to do that on purpose in the future. Though in fairness, the only reason I was able to score on that flag was because the Highwaymen were fleeing, which is something I couldn't have planned.

I was surprised at how well this list was able to cover the flags. When we rolled up the scenario, I thought I was going to have a really hard time getting coverage everywhere. Even with the dense battlegroup, however, it wouldn't have been too hard to spread out a bit if I needed to. Plus I'm learning that Butcher likes flags, depending on the match up (since it's a fairly small area to have to clear). I would have felt a lot better about the right flag if the IFK hadn't gotten axed on turn 2 (more on that in a minute), but overall the BD IFP were still able to contest and hold down that part of the table.

Things That Did Not Go Well:
The initial set of rolls in this game were not encouraging. The Scouts Tough'd their two initial casualties, and then the remaining Scouts were throwing laser-guided axes on their assault charges. I expected to lose a few random models that turn, but I did not expect the IFK to die to a throwing axe.

I almost jammed myself up something fierce with the warjack wall. Managing that effectively is going to be one of the harder things to do. A turn 1 Energizer/charge may even more mandatory to get everything up the table, and in the right positions. I was nervous about doing that due to the amount of guns I was facing down (combined with a Snipe feat) but after seeing how robust the bunker ends up being for Butcher, I'd feel way more comfortable spending down to low camp on turn 1 against most lists. It's probably worth it to have all of the warjacks 3" further up the table (and Butcher 1" further than his normal run).

Key Mistakes/Things To Do Differently:
I think I almost screwed up my charge/Impending Doom that ended up killing the Bomber. I wanted to use one of the Highwaymen to facilitate the charge (so I wouldn't have to use an argus to set it up,) but I also wanted to clear out one of them. The Koldun Lord spray ended up killing that one, and the Highwayman I wanted to charge, but thankfully that one Tough'd. Definitely should have been more careful with that.

In general, I may have been able to play that turn differently, and been much safer. I could have just focused on killing everything near the center flag, and focused on scoring (while keeping Butcher on as much camp as possible, behind everything). The battlegroup would have been absolutely hammered in retaliation, but Butcher would have been safe, which then lets him either continue scoring, or get a run on Grim with Butcher's feat in the chamber (which improves the assassination odds even more).

I almost screwed up Ruin's placement relative to Eiryss2. Not that I had a ton of leeway - Ruin charged in, trying to get as many attacks as possible, and Eiryss2 had to run pretty much straight at the flag - but it's my biggest issue with her. Its surprising how easy it is to forget about that ability, even having used her a lot (sometimes for that express purpose!) I'm trying to me mindful of it, especially in a list with a bigger battlegroup, but sometimes models just need to stand in certain spots. I predict this will screw me catastrophically at least once.

Positioning the Vanguard and Raluk is going to take practice. I'm not very used to the Shield Guard proximity due to not using it much (yay, Ogrun Bokor?) Speaking of the Bokor, as he's my only experience with Shield Guard, I'm much more used to just having it loiter behind Butcher. Since the Vanguard is heartier (and something like Ruin is worth protecting), it's worthwhile to be able to position it more aggressively. Being able to do that and cover most/all of the battlegroup, while also not jamming everything up, is something to work on.

Raluk is also a little tricky to position. Ideally, I'd like for him to be in position to possibly repair a warjack if/when it gets shot, but Ruin makes that more difficult due to Abomination. In a pinch, I'd still probably risk the command check (especially if it was for a crucial system), but in this game I didn't even have him in range to try and Repair. I either need to get better about that, or just resign myself to patching up the Vanguard.

I completely spaced on the fact that Scouts have Hunter. In fairness: so did my opponent. We didn't remember that they had it until he was debating what to Assault with them, and lamented the forest in the way. Turns out, the Scouts don't care! If I had remembered Hunter, I would have tried to hide the IFK better behind the BD IFP. It would have been very nice to have him around for more Shield March'ing, and his random combat abilities later.

I made a pretty silly mistake on the turn 2 by not getting anything in B2B with the center flag. I'm not sure if I could have, and just didn't (i.e. one of the Juggernauts that was just loitering), or if by the time I had it cleared out I was fresh out of scoring options. Looking at the pictures, I could have put the Vanguard in B2B with the flag, and still had it in a position where it could have Shield Guard'd Butcher, and been blocking some LOS as well.

I'm....not entirely sure why I didn't do that, to be honest. In the moment I didn't want the Vanguard too far up for fear of something messing with it (mainly knockdown, possibly an Impaler slam) and that disabled Shield Guard opening up enough shots to get through to kill Butcher. Probably me being overly cautious. Scoring 2 on that turn would have been ideal, as it would have made it possible (especially after Grim's all-in push) to go for scoring 3 CPs the following turn to close the game out.

Noteworthy Model Thoughts:
The mental exercise about how to possibly end the game with Butcher reinforces something that comes up a lot: for as potent as Butcher can be in the assassin role, he's a much stronger scenario 'caster. It's typically a safer approach, and the way you win more consistently at Warmachine is to play the safe odds when you can.

Once Butcher uses his feat, all but the easiest assassinations become much bigger risks. Anything elaborate almost always burns 2+ Focus off his stack, which in turn usually leaves him with just a couple of Focus to try and finish off the opposing 'caster. How feasible that is depends a lot on the 'caster's stats, but even the squishiest 'casters can survive due to dice going south. Being able to go for those kinds of assassinations gives Butcher3 fantastic comeback potential, which is awesome. But it's also an easy way to throw away a game that you otherwise would have won if you'd have just stuck to scenario.

Although Ruin didn't do a lot this game (mostly due to it being brief), I am already impressed by it's potential. The biggest thing about it, at least with Butcher3, is how little it needs: the Affinity covers a surprising amount of it's Focus needs, souls can cover the rest, and it's stats are high enough that it can take care of just about anything it can get itself too. It has a great threat range without Energizer; with Energizer, it's a death bullet. And it can force some extra command checks, which can randomly pay off massively.

Even with just one game, I'm already a big fan. Ruin's general kit is going to make it great to use with just about everyone, and the Affinity makes it crazy good to run with any of the Butchers. I really like it in the context of this style of list as the "alpha" warjack, or as a second Butcher-esque model that you can turtle up behind the Juggernauts and then launch off.

There are two issues I foresee running into:

1) Abomination checks on friendlies. This is less of an issue in this style of list, which is more dense (and Fearless) than others (i.e. the Butcher3 list I've been running for awhile), but it's still something you need to be very aware of. Ruin is perfectly capable of freaking out all your support models if they wander too close to him. It also makes damage on Ruin more of a problem than with other warjacks, because there are currently no Fearless sources of Repair to send it's way. Which is an issue because...

2) Ruin is going to attract a lot of attention. It's essentially a Butcher proxy - similarly powerful, long threat range, potential to kill lots of things in a single area - and your opponent is probably going to respond similarly (i.e. with extreme prejudice). For that reason, I really like the Vanguard in this list as a way to keep heat off of Ruin early game, and then possibly off Butcher later (whereas a Bokor would have exploded early on). Some form of Shield Guard feels mandatory, and I'm going to experiment more with using the Juggernauts to vanguard (not confusing at all) early on and possibly block shooting angles to Ruin.

And Butcher. He's still important.

All that said, I am 100% sold on Ruin in general, and absolutely so in the context of this list. I'd be a little more wary of running it in a list with more infantry. I feel like at that point it'll be easier to single out and burn down before it can get there, though that may still be worth it to keep heat off of Butcher and let him advance more aggressively.

List Changes/Tweaks:
I "like" the battlegroup. Like is in quotes because the Juggernauts aren't much more than a metal wall that might make attacks sometimes, and I'd love for them to have more output. I can see the value of them though: they hit hard enough to threaten just about anything, Critical Freeze keeps them live against a variety of targets, and they're not easy to take down. Good models to use when trying to ferry Butcher3 across the table.

I can see the value in either Jamie or Trent's use of the "defensive" 7 points in the list: Vanguard + Raluk, or Ternion + Bokor. I wanted to try out the Raluk + Vanguard set up, as I've had a Vanguard hanging around for years from when I was going to build a Hunting Wolves theme list. I like the more durable Shield Guard, as well as having a tougher model in general (the Vanguard brings another 26 damage boxes to the list), and Raluk is nice for the pocket Repair.

However, I can also really appreciate the value of Ternion clouds. As simple as it is (and as easy as it is to circumvent), having clouds on the argus, in front of Butcher (who himself has a cloud as well) can make for a potent anti-ranged bunker all it's own. It can also put your opponent in the unfortunate position of having to kill one or more of the dogs to open up a line to Butcher, which can set up some wonderful counter attacks.

I think the biggest thing for me is gearing the list to fight what it's "intended" to match up against, which are lists that have a strong ranged presence. In those situations, I feel like the persistent Shield Guard is more valuable - as mentioned, you can probably get mileage out of it all game (guarding warjacks early game and Butcher later on), compared to the Bokor who is mainly there to prevent one big shot or Eiryss' bolts. I can see the value in either use of those 7 points though, and I can't say that the Raluk + Vanguard module is so good that it's worth going out and purchasing (I would have avoided it if I didn't already have the Vanguard). Though who knows. After a few more games I could be singing a completely different tune.

Other than those 7 points, there isn't a lot of wiggle room to make changes. Dropping Eiryss2 is possible, but it seems like a very bad idea. Ruin brings Dispel to the list, but it's melee based upkeep removal, which seems much more difficult to apply than Eiryss2's RAT 9, threat 19" shot. I could also drop the IFK, as it's technically not needed, but I find that it's passive bonuses (No Sleeping On The Job, CMD 10), Shield March, and it's melee capabilities make it worth included regardless of any super-special synergy (i.e. Irusk2).

So, barring some amazing revelation, I'm very likely to keep this list as-is for awhile.

Closing Thoughts:
If ever I thought of selling off Khador, Butcher3 would be the thing that would make me reconsider. He's such a fun, powerful, yet surprisingly nuanced 'caster. It speaks a lot to the (intentional or not) depth of his design, and depth of the faction at this point, that Butcher3 can run lists that vary wildly between infantry horde and battlegroup brick, and do both effectively.

Ruin was fun to use in this game, for what little use I did get out of him. What is most exciting about Ruin is seeing and feeling the potential of the model. Ruin with any of the Butchers feels like an incredibly solid, self-sufficient warjack. With anyone else, Ruin will still probably be great, and a few 'casters can open up very interesting shenanigans with him (Vlad3 is high on my list of 'casters to test with it). I am very, very excited for it's release in May.

I'm going to be sticking with Khador for the next few weeks in order to get more practice in before the next event I plan on attending (which should be happening near the end of April). I'm going to continue to practice with this list, in anticipation of switching to it as my main Butcher3 list once Ruin is released. I may run it in the current Spriggan form, just to see how it goes, though I'm concerned that I'll be unhappy with how the list performs without Ruin's crazy rules bolstering up the battlegroup. Plus I'm trying to enjoy Ragman in the Sorscha2 list for as long as I can; he's been remarkably effective in that list.

Until next time, thanks very much for reading!

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